How much will my mortgage be

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Mortgage News Daily

11/13/2018 1:51:11 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

CPI (the Consumer Price Index) has been the most relevant economic report on the horizon since the balmy NFP report from 2 weeks back. Reason being: NFP contained a strong wage growth component, and that always generates some fear among bond traders that higher wages will translate to higher inflation. Economists aren't exactly expecting a big uptick in tomorrow's CPI data, but that's precisely why it's been something of a risk. In other words, if CPI were to come in much stronger than expected tomorrow morning, it could dampen spirits in the bond market. Of course CPI could always come in weaker too--which would cast even more doubt on the ability of wages to translate to inflation in the current economic cycle. It's not that it hasn't been happening, just that it hasn't...(read more)

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11/13/2018 1:25:00 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates improved by what could only be described as a token amount today. In other words, we're not talking about any major changes. In fact, mortgage rates themselves will be unchanged from Friday for almost any scenario. As is so often the case, we can only measure the change in terms of "effective rates" (which take upfront costs into consideration). In general, changes in mortgage rates are reserved for big market moves whereas upfront costs and effective rates allow for smaller changes in the overall cost of financing. The bond markets that underlie mortgage rates were closed yesterday for the Veterans Day holiday. In the meantime, the stock market lost ground rather abruptly . At times, bonds (rates) will take cues from stocks--especially when the latter is making a big move lower...(read more)

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11/13/2018 8:17:41 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

It may be that California, where home prices have exploded over the last few years, has jumped the shark when it comes to affordability. CoreLogic's Andrew LePage writes in the company's Insights blog that September home sales in the state were the lowest in the country since September2007. The sales report comes in the wake of reports from several sources showing an abrupt slowdown in home price growth in many of the state's largest metros. CoreLogic says the state's annual gain of 4.1 percent in the median home price statewide was the lowest in more than two years. Coupled with higher mortgages rates, the lack of affordability appears to, in LePage's words, have knocked some would-be buyers to the sidelines, unable or unwilling to buy. Sales do historically fade in September as school starts...(read more)

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11/13/2018 6:46:29 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

People vote with their feet. Some population movements are dramatic and garner headlines around the world, others not so much. “About 130,000 more residents left California for other states last year than came here from them…” according to a Sacramento Bee review of the latest census estimates. “They most often went to cheaper, nearby states — and Texas. Since 2001, about 410,000 more people have left California for Texas than arrived from there. That’s roughly equivalent to the population of Oakland.” Perhaps some of those vacated houses will be purchased by Zillow who the Houston Chronicle is telling us is launching a service called Zillow Offers early next year in Houston. Zillow will be making cash offers on homes from qualified sellers and then...(read more)

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11/13/2018 6:23:52 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As of last Thursday, it didn't look like traders were much interested in hearing arguments in favor of bonds. Then, an unexpectedly healthy little rally on Friday kept hope alive going into the 3-day weekend. Now this morning, the week begins with yields a few bps lower still. 10yr yields begin the week below the middle Bollinger Band (a 21-day moving average that serves as a sort of dividing line between a majority of buying and selling sprees. As can be seen in the most recent dip below (middle yellow line), sometimes the buying sprees are short-lived when we're in the midst of a longer-term uptrend in rates. Momentum technicals (the stochastic oscillators at the bottom of the chart) are also in pretty good shape , with a potential bounce shaping up in shorter-term momentum. The message...(read more)

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11/9/2018 3:26:12 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Interesting day today... It began with a decent overnight rally, mostly led by European bond markets. The first big speed-bump came at 8:30am with the Producer Price Index coming in much hotter than expected. Normally, PPI isn't much of a market mover except in the case of BIG beats/misses. This one fit the bill. Bonds sold-off initially . That much was to be expected, but there would they end the day? The possibilities were endless considering yields were already fairly close to long-term highs. Instead, the 9:30am NYSE open brought a healthy dose of bond buying and a moderate amount of stock selling. European trading continued to play a role until noon when bonds went completely silent ahead of the 3-day Veterans Day Weekend, but not before 10yr yields fell more than 5bps and Fannie 4...(read more)

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11/9/2018 2:45:00 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. Most lenders began the day in slightly worse shape compared to yesterday. Bond markets improved enough by mid-day that many lenders were able to offer positive reprices (new, better rate sheets). Lenders typically don't change mortgage rates more than once a day unless underlying markets have moved enough. Lenders who repriced generally ended up slightly better off compared to yesterday. The remainder were in worse shape. On average, rates were unchanged. Bond markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Veterans Day. That means mortgage companies won't be available to accept rate locks, and many will be fully closed. When markets fire back up next week, they'll soon be able to digest an important report on inflation in the form...(read more)

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11/9/2018 7:27:07 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The ongoing improvement in mortgage performance hit a slight snag in the third quarter of 2018, one that appears to be disaster related. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the National Delinquency Survey found the national delinquency rate grew by 11 basis points (bps) from the second quarter to 4.47 percent. This was, however an improvement of 41 bps from the same quarter in 2017. Foreclosure starts continued to decline, dropping 1 bp quarter-over-quarter to 0.23 percent, its lowest level since, not just the recession, but 1985. All loan types saw increased delinquencies for the quarter but were down year-over-year. For the quarter, the rate for conventional loans was also up 11 bps to 3.56 percent while the FHA rate rose 26 bps and the VA rate 19 bps to 8.96 percent and 4.16 percent...(read more)

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11/9/2018 6:20:49 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Between the mid-term elections earlier this week and the simple tradeflow move following the Fed yesterday, bond markets have had their chance to make any necessary adjustments before the next big data point coming up next week. CPI (the consumer price index) isn't the be all, end all market mover, but it's important right now because it has a chance to confirm or reject the notion that the strongest wage growth in a decade will actually translate to an uptick in prices. If we're to believe this morning's Producer Price data, consumers should certainly be prepared to pay more. If CPI continues in a 2.2-2.3% year over year range (at the core level), that would actually be a bond-friendly development. It would mean producers aren't able to pass on their higher input costs...(read more)

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11/9/2018 5:58:39 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Whether bond loans (we all know how management loves those), non-QM, reverse mortgages, or high loan to values, originators everywhere are working hard for their borrowers and being creative in a compliant manner. For example, from Minnesota Eric Otterness writes, “Recently my team and I closed on a loan for a first-time buyer in Minneapolis where we had eight down payment assistance programs layered on top. I’m pretty sure that $86,000 on a $190,000 house is a new world record! It was fun and I doubt it has ever been matched or will ever be beaten. If anyone knows of a transaction where there were more, let them come forward and we will stop claiming the new world record!” Lender Products and Services Mr. Cooper Correspondent is excited regarding the pending acquisition of...(read more)

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11/8/2018 2:02:16 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

It's hard not to give the Fed a wide berth as the biggest potential market mover on any given Fed day. Today was a Fed day! We talked about the outside possibility of the Fed statement having an impact on markets. Markets indeed made SOME movement, but looked at under anything less powerful than a microscope, today's moves were fairly small. Still, it did seem that bonds were leveling off before the Fed only to move higher in yield afterward. So, did the Fed matter after all? Some traders took the absence of change in the statement to mean the Fed isn't worried about recent stock market weakness or trade-related uncertainty. The supposed implication is that the Fed was unfriendly to rates today because they didn't say anything new and rate-friendly, but that's a big stretch...(read more)

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11/8/2018 1:36:00 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved back up today, leaving them right in line with the highest levels of the week. These also happen to be the highest levels since early 2011, but let's not get bogged down in unfortunate details! Rates will definitely move lower at some point in the future. That's the way economic cycles work--and they always work eventually. The big questions are twofold: how long will it take for fortunes to change and how high will rates go in the meantime? In terms of timing, we could be looking at anywhere from a few months to more than year before seeing a shift that's big enough to get excited about. That said, there will still be pockets of positivity at times, even in a rising rate environment. Whatever the case may be, the higher rates go, the closer we're getting to the end of...(read more)

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11/8/2018 11:43:09 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Housing affordability crept down again in the third quarter of 2018 reaching, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), a ten-year low. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) indicates that 56.4 percent of new and existing homes that were sold nationwide during the quarter were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $71,000 . In the second quarter 57.1 percent of homes were affordable by this measure. Affordability, according to the 2 nd quarter reading, is the lowest since mid-2008. The HOI reacted to the combination of a 5 basis point increase in the mortgage interest rate to 4.72 percent over the course of the reporting period, coupled ongoing appreciation in home values. The median price of a home sold during the quarter was $268,000...(read more)

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11/8/2018 11:13:55 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in AugustSeptember indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed lowdeclined. Household spending andhas continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment havehas grownmoderated stronglyfrom its rapid pace earlier in the year. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee...(read more)

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11/8/2018 8:58:24 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

A deep dig into recent home purchase loans shows that some of the underwriting standards employed by FHA and the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) eased over the year that ended with Q2 2018. Archana Pradhan, an analyst with CoreLogic's Mortgage Finance and Risk Management Department writes in the company's Insights blog that neither conventional nor FHA lending extended the easing to their respective treatment of credit scores. CoreLogic looked at the three key factors in mortgage underwriting, debt-to-income (DTI) and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios along with credit scores. The analysis included average scores and ratios, but Pradhan says that measure does not necessary indicate any higher risk to the housing market, so the company included an analysis of the trends in the share of loans originated...(read more)

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11/8/2018 6:11:55 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

I'm going to talk about the potential for a friendly bounce in bonds today. I want to be clear right up front that I'm presenting this as one of two possibilities, and without any comment on which possibility is more likely. It's just that we've sort of beating the "rates are going higher" thing to death--at least for the time being. The possibility, threat, or perhaps even likelihood that rates can, will, or should go higher isn't going anywhere . It's something that should be part of your survival strategy for however many more months it continues to be the case (yes, I think we can count it's remaining lifespan in months, not years). Our most recent trend toward higher rates has coincided with a bounce in stocks . Going back a few weeks before that,...(read more)

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11/8/2018 6:07:56 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

“Rob, we just went through our third staff reduction. Have you heard of any vendors that work on forecasting or doing ‘what if’ scenarios for lenders rather than us doing layoffs?” Sure – for less than a basis point Riivos helps originators make more money by providing visibility into the financial and operational components of the loan manufacturing process - management can make informed decisions on which changes to make to become more profitable. I asked management about their client’s performance in 2018, and they said, on average, Riivos mortgage customers are actually making 11 bps more in 2018 than 2017, significantly outperforming the industry in net income bps. (And no, this isn’t a paid ad – if it keeps one person from being cut, it’s...(read more)

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11/7/2018 2:05:49 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Those who expected the election to matter to bond markets got their way overnight. Those who expected elections to be inconsequential got their way by the end of the day. During the overnight session, there was clear correlation between the odds of Democratic control of the House and strength in bond markets. When the results were more or less official, rates fell to their best levels of the week. Notably, however, they avoided breaking below the 3.18% technical level. Bond market strength remained in play during the morning hours. Indeed, it may have remained in play all day had it not been for a terrible reception for today's 30yr Treasury auction as well as a hefty slate of corporate debt issuance . By the end of the day, Treasuries had edged just barely back into negative territory...(read more)

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11/7/2018 1:52:00 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were slightly lower today. Unfortunately, that may not be the case by tomorrow morning. Underlying bond markets (which dictate rates) lost ground throughout the day. If trading levels don't change by tomorrow morning, the average lender will be back up at the highest rates in 7+ years. Many are close enough as it is. The key feature of the past 24 hours was the midterm elections. Bonds improved when democrats won control of the house. This was in line with the average prediction for how elections might impact rates. That said, the fact that bonds have already fully erased that overnight move should let you know just how little the elections mattered in the bigger picture. The longer-term headwinds for interest rates remain entrenched, and it will take a long time or a massive...(read more)

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11/7/2018 9:13:34 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Despite the success of the U.S. economy as of late, housing sentiment seems to have hit a rough patch . Fannie Mae said its Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) continued to decline in October, moving lower for the third time in four months. The index, based on responses to a portion of questions in the National Housing Survey, fell by 2.0 points to 85.7 with five of the six components posting declines and the fifth unchanged from September. The net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a house fell 5 percentage points to only 21 percent. The net is the result of subtracting negative responses from positive ones. Those saying it is a good time to sell was down by 3 points to 35 percent. That measure has dropped by 9 points since June. The net share of those who expect prices to...(read more)

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11/7/2018 6:05:34 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Whether you thought the election would or would not matter for the bond market, you were right! At times, it mattered quite a bit in the overnight session, but as we begin the day, trading levels are arguably close enough to yesterday's that no one needs to shout from the rooftops about imminent sea-changes. Refreshingly, the election had exactly the impact we suspected in terms of the correlation between democrats taking the House and lower rates. That's not because democrats have anything more to do with rates than republicans. Rather, it's been unchecked government spending (or specifically, revenue shortfall from the tax bill) that has pushed rates higher due to increased Treasury issuance, and indirectly via a hotter running economy due to the stimulative effects of the fiscal...(read more)

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11/7/2018 6:03:33 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Lenders outside of Ohio were mildly interested in the Ohio Governor’s race where Ex-CFPB chief Richard Cordray lost. As forecast Democrats won the House and the Republicans kept control of the Senate, and although there were a few surprises, and some results aren’t known yet. There was a fair amount of volatility overnight and each democratic win seemed good for bonds and not so much so for equities: this morning we find rates temporarily lower (but over time rates are still expected to grind higher) and stocks higher. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and much of that has been removed. Things are still polarized, and the jawboning has begun on 2020. Lender Products and Services Looking for a familiar path to grow your Non-Agency production? Galton Funding, a leading non-agency...(read more)

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11/7/2018 5:14:06 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The week ended November 2 was another week of retreat for mortgage applications as the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) Market Composite Index dropped by 4.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. This brought the index to its lowest level since December 2014 . The index was down 2.0 percent on an unadjusted basis compared to the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent and the share of applications that were for refinancing shrunk to 39.1 percent from 39.4 percent of the total. Despite fluctuating almost weekly and even with rising interest rates, the share of loans that were for refinancing has declined by only a net of 2 percentage points since the end of July. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index declined by 5 percent from one week earlier to the lowest level since...(read more)

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11/6/2018 2:37:00 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

While we can point to tonight's election results on the calendar, and imagine that they'll have an impact on financial markets, stocks and bonds simply continued doing what they've been doing since October 28th. That's when stocks and bond yields bottomed out in a move that was driven exclusively by heavy selling in stocks. Since then, they've been bouncing back slowly but surely. Friday's NFP reaction threw a bit of a wrench in the works as neither stocks nor bonds appreciated the implication of faster/more Fed rate hikes. There was a bit of healing yesterday as both sides of the market rallied. Today, however, it was back to the same old business of rates and stocks moving in the same direction. Today, that direction happened to be higher. It remains to be seen just...(read more)

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11/6/2018 2:03:00 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates didn't move much today. A few lenders were microscopically stronger or weaker, and the average lender was perfectly unchanged. That's fairly decent news, considering underlying bond markets suggested higher rates by the end of the day. That said, this could easily be one of those situations where lenders are heading into tomorrow morning with a bit if an upward adjustment to make to rates (reason being: they need to see a certain amount of movement in any given day before "repricing." Otherwise, they'll just wait for the following morning). Even then, the landscape of tomorrow morning's bond market could look very different. Some market participants don't think midterm election results will matter much at all. Others think they could be the jumping-off point for the next phase...(read more)

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