How much will my mortgage be

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Mortgage News Daily

10/17/2017 1:52:07 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Treasuries and MBS have spent the past 2 days trading well inside the range set by last Friday's volatility (big rally following CPI data). Unfortunately, the central tendency during those 2 days has been toward moderately weaker levels. This casts some doubt on what looked like a clear signal on Friday, but it's too soon to rule out additional gains based on today's trading. After all, bonds did manage to make it back to unchanged in many cases. Fannie 3.5 MBS were perfectly unchanged and 10yr yields ended the day just barely into positive territory. Things looked more bleak around 9am this morning when bonds had taken a noticeable turn toward weaker levels. There were no clear fundamental justifications for the movement at the time (import price data was 20 minutes before the...(read more)

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10/17/2017 12:51:00 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were at their best levels in roughly a month last Friday afternoon. Since then, they've risen modestly on each of the past two business days. As has been the case for quite some time, day-to-day movement continues to be very tame. The actual interest rates at the top of loan quotes rarely change from one day to the next. Instead, fine-tuning adjustments to the overall cost of financing come courtesy of slightly higher upfront costs--at least in today's case. In other words, if you were being quoted 3.875% yesterday on a 30yr loan yesterday, chances are you'd be seeing the same rate today, but with upfront costs just a bit higher (or a lender credit that's just a bit lower, depending on the scenario). In the bigger picture, rates are attempting to push lower after rising fairly...(read more)

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10/17/2017 7:35:38 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

After reacting strongly to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma with a four-point drop in September, the Housing Market Index (HMI) regained its footing in October. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says the HMI, which measures its new home builder member's attitudes toward the new home market gained four points this month, reaching 68, its highest reading since May. Analysts had expected the index, which NAHB cosponsors with Wells Fargo, to remain unchanged from September at 64. "This month's report shows that home builders are rebounding from the initial shock of the hurricanes," said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald. "However, builders need to be mindful of long-term repercussions from the storms, such as intensified material price increases and labor shortages." Derived from a monthly...(read more)

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10/17/2017 7:26:19 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

It has been a rather dismal spring and summer for construction, one in which permitting has declined in three out of the last four months. Going more granular, however, a report from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) finds that residential permitting, and thus construction, is picking up steam in many states. The Census Bureau releases two separate reports covering aspects of residential construction each month. The one MND readers are most familiar with is the Residential Construction Report which provides details on the issuing of building permits, housing starts, and unit completions. It is based on the Survey of Construction and is partially funded by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The second report focuses primarily on permits and presents data from the...(read more)

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10/17/2017 6:22:56 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Does the Fed Chairman make a difference? Yes. Taylor and Powell’s names continue to be mentioned, although Trump is set to interview Janet Yellen Thursday. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Janet Yellen was being given the boot, unfortunately. Trump must decide whether to risk jarring the markets to ensure deregulation. After all, she is an Obama appointee, and Donald Trump has shown disdain for all things Obama. (More on Yellen in the capital markets section below.) Products and Conferences In correspondent news, AmeriHome's Correspondent Scratch and Dent Program continues to help originators sell loans with origination defects. The AmeriHome program is designed to save clients time and money shopping for buyers and negotiating new contracts by having AmeriHome handle these transactions...(read more)

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10/17/2017 6:18:14 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As we discussed last week, the positive technical signals don't get much clearer than they did after Friday's CPI data (weak inflation helped bonds break a floor that had been stubbornly holding for several weeks. At the time, the biggest risk as I saw it was that the positive cues were "too obvious." When there's such a resounding confluence of technical and fundamental input, it makes sense to ask the question: if everyone wants to be a buyer, who are they going to buy from? The weakness seen yesterday (and so far today) is exactly what we risk by following the technicals to the letter. Frustratingly enough, we still haven't seen enough weakness to abandon our hope for a broader shift toward lower rates. That could be a decision for today, however, if bonds end up...(read more)

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10/16/2017 2:02:00 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. Underlying bond markets suggested a bit more movement, and that will likely be reflected in tomorrow morning's rate sheets unless bonds improve overnight. In other words, effective rates are just a bit lower this afternoon than bond market trading levels would imply. This happens fairly often when bonds move during the day, but not by a wide enough margin to prompt mortgage lenders to reissue the day's rate sheets. All that having been said, the change would still be fairly minimal in the bigger picture, with most any lender continuing to quote the same interest rate (just with slightly higher upfront costs). After dropping at the best pace in more than a month to the lowest levels in roughly a month on Friday,...(read more)

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10/16/2017 2:01:43 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

If the only things you could observe about today's bond trading were volumes and "buy vs sell," there were a few moments where things got fairly interesting --especially after 2pm. That's when the biggest volume and the biggest movement of the day occurred. While there were several headlines in play at the time, it was Trump's off-the-cuff reference to a surprise economic development bill that would be announced "later on," after sufficiently focusing on "tax cuts and some other things right now," that most clearly rocked bond markets. "Rocked" is a relative term, to be sure. If you wanted to talk up the headline, you could point out that it resulted in a bigger single minute of volume in Treasury Futures than last week's very important...(read more)

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10/16/2017 6:27:18 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

It looks like it will be touch and go for bonds as the week begins. If yields or technicals touch certain overhead ceilings, you should go lock your loans. If you're up to speed on Friday's technical victory, you're equipped to understand this week's outlook. If you're not, here's a brief recap. We've basically been waiting for bonds to show us a bigger commitment to gains after a few half-hearted attempts to break the shackles of the sell-off that began on 9/11/17. Friday finally delivered the first technical "victory" with trading levels breaking below the 200-day moving average (also the high-volume, high yield mark from the big "tax plan day" sell-off at the end of September). We'd also been hoping to see MACD (the bottom indicator on...(read more)

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10/16/2017 6:26:36 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Given the latest tax plan, will the mortgage interest deduction stay, but become worthless? The GOP blueprint would double the standard deduction for individuals and couples, making the mortgage interest deduction worthless for anyone who doesn’t itemize. Stay tuned… Bank News Here's a little trivia for tonight's Happy Hour: baby boomers control about 67% of all bank deposits. JPMorgan has partnered with PayPal to allow Chase customers to link cards to PayPal accounts. Meanwhile, Citibank has also partnered with PayPal to allow Citi customers to pay using ThankYou points at merchants that accept PayPal. For a Basel III update, The Basel Committee for Banking Supervision is close to reaching an agreement on capital rules for banks . France has complicated the final negotiations...(read more)

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10/13/2017 1:30:59 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There was a time--in fact, there was a stretch of several years--when inflation-related reports just didn't matter . I would have been the first to tell you that (and often was), even as those with a more conventional approach to market analysis would never dismiss the relevance of inflation when it came to bond market motivations. Still, the proof was in the pudding. Inflation reports would surge and retreat, falling far from forecasts. Yet bond markets wouldn't bat an eyelash. Bonds even moved in the opposite direction from that suggested by the inflation data on many occasions. But inflation is back! Well, to be clear, the importance of inflation-related data is back. Inflation itself, as seen again in today's data, is struggling to come back, and that's a coup for bond markets...(read more)

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10/13/2017 11:47:00 AM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved lower today. For many lenders, it was the biggest drop in more than a month and it also brings them to the best levels in roughly a month. Others were more hesitant to make significant updates to today's rate sheets based on this morning's strength in bond markets (which underlie mortgage rates). If you're not seeing much of an improvement compared to yesterday at a specific lender, they're more likely to pass along that improvement if bond markets continue holding in current territory at the start of next week. Just to be clear on how much improvement you might expect from a day like today, we're talking about roughly one quarter of 1 percent of the loan amount, expressed in terms of upfront cost. In other words, if your loan is $100k, then your upfront costs would have...(read more)

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10/13/2017 7:56:00 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Credit Access Index, released earlier this week, showed continued slight easing in the credit markets, especially in the jumbo loan space. A second similar index from the Housing Finance Policy Center, has credit tightening slightly. The Centers Credit Availability Index (HCAI) moved off the recent peak of 5.4, set in the first quarter of this year, to 5.1 in the second quarter. The Center says the decline was due primarily to a shift in market composition , from the government channel to the portfolio channel where lending standards are tighter. The HCAI measures the share of purchase mortgages that are likely to default, that is, become 90 or more days past due, and lenders' willingness to tolerate it. A lower index indicates a lower tolerance reflected...(read more)

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10/13/2017 6:24:18 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Per Fed Chair Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve has been working to revise post-crisis financial regulations, making them less onerous and better suited to individual banks’ size and complexity. "For community banks, which by and large avoided the risky business practices that contributed to the financial crisis, we have been focused on making sure that much-needed improvements to regulation and supervision since the crisis are appropriate and not unduly burdensome" Nice. Lenders Making Moves With New Products "Rob, is Quicken Loans buying & selling real estate?" Technically no, but in a manner yes. If you want the full details you should contact someone at the Quicken Loans Family of Companies (QLFOC, this industry is obsessed with acronyms) since this entity owns both Quicken Loans...(read more)

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10/13/2017 5:18:34 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

My apologies to baseball fans, both of you. The "judge" in today's case is this morning's CPI (Consumer Price Index) data. Bonds have been deliberating all month about whether to make an attempt to break above 2.40% or bounce back into the confines of the range that's dominated the past 6 months. On the plus side, yields quickly backed down from their first run at 2.40%, but on a negative note, they've thus far refused to move back below the 200-day moving average (or "the low 2.3's," if you prefer). This morning's CPI data isn't necessarily the be all, end all determinant of bonds' next move, but for several months, it's arguably been the biggest motivator in terms of economic data. Reason being: it's the last piece of the puzzle...(read more)

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10/12/2017 5:04:53 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bond markets are matching their best 3-day performance in over a month with today's stronger closing levels. Unlike the previous examples, the current 3 days have resulted in the biggest move lower in yields from the previous day's highs. Pretty confusing sentence... let me explain. Friday's high yields were just over 2.40% in 10yr Treasuries and today closed at 2.32%--an 8bp improvement. The previous corrections were good for a 7bp and 1.5bp improvement using the same measurement rules. The frustrating thing is that we have no idea whether or not to be excited about that until we see tomorrow morning's CPI data. It has been and continues to be this week's data highlight. As for today, the PPI data did a small amount of damage in the morning as the "core" indices...(read more)

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10/12/2017 4:19:00 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rate data collection is tricky business . Some sources rely on survey data that can have a limited collection window and a significant lag. Other sources rely on incredibly aggressive quotes that tend to have caveats that limit the rates' availability and applicability to the average top tier scenario. We take a different approach that takes all the potential distortion and confusion out of the process. The result is the most accurate day-over-day mortgage rate movement available, and today's a good day for it. Reason being: today is Thursday! Why is Thursday cause for exclamation? It's the day of the week that Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey is released. This is the long-standing benchmark for mortgage rates as far as financial markets and news media is concerned. There...(read more)

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10/12/2017 8:01:43 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is forecasting that a significant decline in new home sales occurred last month. However, like much of the other September housing data that has been released so far, it appears that Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are behind much of the downturn. According to MBA's Builder Applications Survey (BAS), mortgage applications for the purchase of newly constructed homes were down 7.5 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis in September when compared to September 2016. MBA says the sales, estimated at 42,000 new homes, was a decrease of 19.2 percent from the 52,000 homes sold the previous month. "Applications for new home purchases were down year over year in large part due the impacts of hurricane activity ," said Lynn Fisher, MBA's Vice President of Research...(read more)

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10/12/2017 6:46:43 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

With home prices nearly back to where they were when the housing crisis began, CoreLogic's principal economist Molly Boesel compares the duration of the recent cycle to those of other downturns. While there hasn't been a comparable period of performance nationwide, she looks at several regional ones. After hitting peak in 2006, the national price level fell for five years , finally reaching bottom in March 2011. Most other sources set the date for the bottom of the market to exactly a year later which may indicate they are using inflation adjusted numbers. From peak to trough, prices fell 33 percent nationally. As of July 2017, CoreLogic data shows prices were approximating the 2006 level. Boesel compares these numbers to those of the Texas oil bust in the mid-1980's which resulted in a 16...(read more)

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10/12/2017 6:33:16 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

The driving force of housing prices is supply and demand, and the demand is increasing. In the Bay Area, and for hundreds of miles north, the smoke is everywhere, reminding one of the 23 (and counting) who perished and 3,500 (and counting) houses and buildings destroyed by the fires. Truly tragic, and now there are thousands of families who have no place to live whatsoever and who will need long term solutions – joining those in the Gulf Area & Caribbean. Correction In yesterday's commentary the link for National MI Bulletin (Declared Disasters) was incorrect and should be http://www.nationalmi.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/National-MI-Announcement-UW-SVC-2017-04.pdf . I apologize for any confusion. Upcoming Events Freedom Mortgage Wholesale, a full-service, nationwide lender, is...(read more)

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10/12/2017 6:04:25 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

CPI, CPI, CPI... The "Consumer Price Index" is the one thing on this week's economic calendar that stood out as a top tier potential market mover. After a few revisions, the lowest-in-years reading of 1.6% for "Core CPI" became 1.7% in June and has held at 1.7% in the 3 subsequent reports. If we see that number finally rise tomorrow, it will be an ominous sign for bond bulls--one that that suggests there may be something to the Fed's assessment of super low inflation being temporary. The only problem with CPI being a big market mover--at least as far as TODAY'S trading session is concerned--is that it doesn't come out until tomorrow! As the week has progressed, we've seen a series of swings and misses by all manner of market data, events, and headlines...(read more)

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10/11/2017 2:34:38 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

"Well? Get on with it!" That about sums up what the average bond market watcher was thinking at the end of September--and possibly again after today's trading session. At the end of September, a run toward higher yields resumed abruptly just after looking like it had calmed down. The tacit implication was that the last major highs (roughly 2.40-2.42% in terms of 10yr yields) would soon be challenged. Indeed, rates crested 2.40% just before the Columbus Day weekend. Actually, they hit the highs earlier in the day and then rallied back impressively in the afternoon. Now this week, they've avoided committing to either theme (the scary moves higher or the comforting moves lower). Yields have remained WELL-inside last week's range, and today's auction and Fed Minutes did...(read more)

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10/11/2017 12:44:00 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates haven't done much over the past few days, with the average lender offering substantially similar quotes every day in October. Depending on your perspective, that could be good or bad. On the positive side, the lack of movement means that clear trend toward higher rates in September is at least taking a breather. On the negative side, it means rates have been holding near the highest levels in 2 months. It's not clear what it will take for this stagnation to lift. It IS clear that it wasn't today's Fed Minutes. The Fed releases official policy statements 8 times a year. 3 weeks after each of those, the Fed follows up by releasing the Minutes for those meetings, which provide additional detail about their decision making process and the differing views of the various Fed members...(read more)

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10/11/2017 6:44:47 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

I mentioned yesterday that 6,762 institutions took a residential loan application in 2016, per Richey May’s HMDA dashboard data. For perspective, the 2007 HMDA data shows that 8,610 lenders took at least 1 application that year, which probably doesn’t include those that went belly up before filing HMDA data…a drop of roughly 2,000 lenders in those “betwixt” 9 years. Disaster updates Northern & Southern California continues to be racked by deadly fires , and, on a personal side note, we've offered up our house for evacuees. And the damage and recovery remains in places like Texas, Louisiana, and Florida from the hurricanes. You can always find the latest disaster news, from the government's perspective, at https://www.fema.gov/ . I am sure we'll see a spate...(read more)

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10/11/2017 5:50:17 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

On both MBS Live and Mortgage News Daily, there's a video in the news stream titled "Key things to watch in the Fed minutes." The commentator rather emphatically says there are 3 important things: " inflation, inflation, and inflation ." News flash to that guy: there's nothing the Fed can say about inflation that we haven't already heard them say in even more meaningful ways. The commentator asserts that we need to hear what the Fed is going to do about the fact that they want to hike rates in December against a backdrop of persistently low/flat inflation. Great news for him! They've already given their opinion on that matter as well! The Fed was well aware of the inflation landscape at the last meeting, and the Fed's rate hike forecast extended only...(read more)

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